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ARSENALARSENAL

4-0-1  |  Home

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Emirates Stadium

COVENTRYCOVENTRY

0-0-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ARSENAL
35%
DRAW
31%
COVENTRY
35%
▲ Edge: +43.80% (Coventry City)
83% Book Odds: -475
DRAW 14% Book Odds: +615
6% Book Odds: +1500
Book Implied: 82.60% / 14% / 6.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 3.0 48%
Under 3.0 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
COVENTRY
Book Goal Line
+2
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 goals (Coventry)
ArsenalArsenal (-2) 0 CoventryCoventry (+2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

64.5% / 35.5%

Shots (On Goal)

20(6) / 4(1)

Corners

8 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Coventry City 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Coventry City)

Arsenal By 1 goal

21.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

15.9%

Coventry City By 1 goal

21.1%

Coventry City By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 2.50
1
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 0.50
Simulated Score
3
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 2.50
0
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 0.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Loss
62% Win Prob
A
Sim Arsenal Win
94% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coventry City (+2) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim Arsenal (-2) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 21, 2026 Arsenal vs Coventry 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Coventry: 0.0 vs Arsenal: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Coventry: 3.0 vs Arsenal: 8.0
Wins (L5) +150.0% more
Coventry: 5.0 vs Arsenal: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +54.5% more
Coventry: 17.0 vs Arsenal: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Coventry City Score 1.0 0
Arsenal Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Arsenal (Home) vs Coventry City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Arsenal Share: 50.0% Coventry City Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Arsenal
Coventry City
Arsenal
Coventry City
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
71% 2-1-1
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 1-1-2
75% 3-1-1
60% 1-1-2
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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