Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Rangers WSH @ TEX

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-67  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

62-64  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Kent

#25 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Kent 0-0 6.75 2.00 4.0 6
Cal Quantrill 4-4 3.44 1.20 70.2 49
0-0 W-L 4-4
6.75 ERA Ldr 3.44
2.00 WHIP Ldr 1.20
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 70.2
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 49
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
26%
📊
RANGERS
74%
▲ Edge: +16.40% (TEX)
NATIONALS 44% Book Odds: +127
RANGERS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 44.10% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 74%
Under 7.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
TEXAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Texas)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Texas Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

23.4%

Rangers Cover

76.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

WSH By 1-2 runs

10.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

5.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
6.7
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Rangers Win
69% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 WSH @ TEX 0 - 2
Aug 19, 2026 WSH @ TEX 6 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 WSH @ TEX 0 - 5
Jun 8, 2025 TEX @ WSH 4 - 2
Jun 7, 2025 TEX @ WSH 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.713
210 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs Washington: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +28.7% more
Washington: 1.2 vs Texas: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +25.6% more
Washington: 9.6 vs Texas: 7.2
Walks (L5) +19.3% more
Washington: 4.0 vs Texas: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 0
TEX Score 6.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.0 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.6 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 11.6 15.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -162 → +127 / -136 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
WSH
TEX
WSH
ML
53% 86-76
57% 92-69
57% 91-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-68
61% 98-63
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 78-70-14
50% 77-78-6
55% 81-66-14
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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