Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Cubs CHW @ CHC

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

65-60  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

74-53  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Gausman
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Gausman

#12 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Hudson 3-4 3.14 1.28 51.2 50
Kevin Gausman 6-11 4.53 1.27 139.0 138
3-4 W-L 6-11
3.14 Ldr ERA 4.53
1.28 WHIP Ldr 1.27
51.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 139.0
50 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 138
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
47%
📊
CUBS
53%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (CHW)
WHITE SOX 39% Book Odds: +158
CUBS 63% Book Odds: -170
Book Implied: 38.80% / 63%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 9.5 61%
Under 9.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

53.0%

Cubs Cover

47.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

12.7%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.9%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.7
B
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.826 ▲
OPS
.374
1 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +14.9% more
Chicago: 9.4 vs Chicago: 8.1
Runs per Game (Season) +91.7% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +68.0% more
Chicago: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.1
OPS (Season) +45.2%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 5.2 3
CHC Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.1 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.6 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 16.2 15.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.7 / 5.0 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +158 / -170 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9.5 ↑
87%TICKETS13%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CHW
CHC
CHW
ML
58% 93-68
49% 81-86
51% 82-79
56% 94-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 99-68
47% 75-85-1
56% 93-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
58% 96-69-2
46% 72-83-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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