ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
74-52 | Road
1
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
62-65 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 4-9 | 4.64 | 1.32 | 106.2 | 105 |
| Zebby Matthews | 6-8 | 5.34 | 1.35 | 91.0 | 77 |
4-9
W-L
6-8
4.64 Ldr
ERA
5.34
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
106.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
91.0
105 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
77
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
45%
TWINS
55%
▲ Edge: +11.20% (MIN)
BRAVES
58%
Book Odds: -140
TWINS
43%
Book Odds: +131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
45%
Under 9.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.1%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
4.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ATL @ MIN
4 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ATL @ MIN
1 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
ATL @ MIN
2 - 4
Apr 20, 2025
MIN @ ATL
2 - 6
Apr 19, 2025
MIN @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18600.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+30.9% more
Minnesota: 9.1
vs
Atlanta: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+18.7% more
Minnesota: 13.2
vs
Atlanta: 11.1
Walks (L5)
+12.5% more
Minnesota: 3.7
vs
Atlanta: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
1
MIN Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 6.9
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.4
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 11.1
15.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -132 / +109
→
-140 / +131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
52%
84-78
46%
77-90
50%
80-81
54%
90-78
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
96-71
59%
95-66
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
83-73-11
53%
80-72-9
49%
76-80-11
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