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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-77  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

53-74  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jack Perkins
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Perkins

#50 | Starting Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Perkins 2-9 7.27 1.52 81.2 94
Daniel Lynch IV 4-4 2.88 1.02 50.0 40
2-9 W-L 4-4
7.27 ERA Ldr 2.88
1.52 WHIP Ldr 1.02
81.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 50.0
94 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 40
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
21%
📊
ROYALS
79%
▲ Edge: +17.40% (KC)
ATHLETICS 41% Book Odds: +147
ROYALS 61% Book Odds: -158
Book Implied: 40.50% / 61.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 48%
Under 9.0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Kansas City)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Kansas City Royals (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

19.8%

Royals Cover

80.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

ATH By 1-2 runs

9.5%

ATH By 3-4 runs

4.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

17.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
6.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Royals Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.4
B
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719 ▲
OPS
.718
194 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Athletics: 24.5%
Errors (L5) +69.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +51.3% more
Athletics: 2.3 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +26.3% more
Athletics: 17.8 vs Kansas City: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 2.8 3
KC Score 6.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.2 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.2 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 17.8 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.9 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → +147 / -158 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
21%TICKETS79%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10 → 9 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ATH
KC
ATH
ML
55% 89-72
59% 95-67
56% 90-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
52% 84-78
58% 93-67
50% 81-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
54% 84-73-5
54% 83-70-7
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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