ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
66-61 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
68-58 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 8-10 | 5.11 | 1.48 | 125.0 | 82 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4-3 | 3.25 | 1.19 | 108.0 | 110 |
8-10
W-L
4-3
5.11
ERA
Ldr 3.25
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
125.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
108.0
82
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
RED SOX
46%
▲ Edge: +14% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
Book Odds: +148
RED SOX
61%
Book Odds: -159
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
68%
Under 7.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Boston
4.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Boston
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ARI @ BOS
7 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ARI @ BOS
4 - 9
Aug 17, 2026
ARI @ BOS
1 - 11
Sep 7, 2025
BOS @ ARI
7 - 4
Sep 6, 2025
BOS @ ARI
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720
▲
OPS
.409
166
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+78.1% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Arizona: 0.7
vs
Boston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
4
BOS Score
4.5
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.4 / 7.4
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.5
3.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 13.0
20.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.8
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+148 / -159
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ARI
BOS
ARI
ML
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
91-70
48%
79-84
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
72-83-5
52%
80-73-8
47%
74-83-6
49%
73-77-9
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