ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
65-62 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
60-66 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 9-4 | 3.38 | 1.34 | 117.1 | 105 |
| Andrew Abbott | 6-7 | 4.13 | 1.42 | 133.0 | 102 |
9-4
W-L
6-7
3.38 Ldr
ERA
4.13
1.34 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
117.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 133.0
105 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
102
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
47%
REDS
53%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (CIN)
CARDINALS
53%
Book Odds: -112
REDS
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 9.0
44%
Under 9.0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
4.3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+27.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+0.8%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.9
3
CIN Score
4.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
4.8 / 8.2
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 9.8
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 14.9
3.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105
→
-112 / +104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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