Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Guardians SF @ CLE

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

51-74  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

61-65  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Carson Whisenhunt
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Whisenhunt

#88 | SP
@
Foster Griffin
STARTING PITCHER

Foster Griffin

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carson Whisenhunt 3-3 6.11 1.71 28.0 22
Foster Griffin 13-4 3.25 1.11 138.1 125
3-3 W-L 13-4
6.11 ERA Ldr 3.25
1.71 WHIP Ldr 1.11
28.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 138.1
22 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 125
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
58%
📊
GUARDIANS
42%
▲ Edge: +20.80% (SF)
GIANTS 37% Book Odds: +170
GUARDIANS 65% Book Odds: -182
Book Implied: 37% / 64.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

59.9%

Guardians Cover

40.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
4.1
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Guardians Win
69% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 SF @ CLE 2 - 5
Aug 19, 2026 SF @ CLE 1 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 SF @ CLE 1 - 8
Jun 19, 2025 CLE @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 18, 2025 CLE @ SF 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.706 ▲
OPS
.696
178 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +50.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Walks (L5) +22.8% more
San Francisco: 5.3 vs Cleveland: 4.1
Hits (L5) +19.0% more
San Francisco: 8.8 vs Cleveland: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.1 1
CLE Score 4.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.8 12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 5.3 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 13.3 18.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.1 / 5.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +170 / -182 ↑
20%TICKETS80%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
15%TICKETS85%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SF
CLE
SF
ML
54% 87-75
49% 79-81
49% 80-83
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 93-69
62% 100-60
58% 95-68
52% 83-77
TTL
56% 89-71-2
55% 82-68-10
44% 70-90-2
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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