MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
64-63 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
69-58 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | 2-0 | 5.61 | 1.54 | 33.2 | 29 |
| Zack Wheeler | 10-4 | 2.89 | 1.00 | 115.1 | 137 |
2-0
W-L
10-4
5.61
ERA
Ldr 2.89
1.54
WHIP
Ldr 1.00
33.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 115.1
29
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 137
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
PHILLIES
63%
▲ Edge: +3% (MIA)
MARLINS
34%
Book Odds: +195
PHILLIES
68%
Book Odds: -211
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.5
61%
Under 8.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.9%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
5.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+53.3% more
Philadelphia: 8.6
vs
Miami: 5.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
4
PHI Score
5.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 10.3
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 5.6
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 15.6
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.1 / 5.6
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +199 / -246
→
+195 / -211
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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