DETROIT
TIGERSDET
61-65 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
62-66 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero | 9-7 | 3.22 | 0.99 | 128.2 | 86 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | 12-5 | 3.82 | 1.10 | 141.1 | 155 |
9-7
W-L
12-5
3.22 Ldr
ERA
3.82
0.99 Ldr
WHIP
1.10
128.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 141.1
86
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 155
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
73%
PIRATES
27%
▲ Edge: +31.30% (DET)
TIGERS
41%
Book Odds: +142
PIRATES
60%
Book Odds: -152
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
64%
Under 8.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
19.1%
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Win
69% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
181
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+51.0% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+29.1% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+23.0% more
Detroit: 15.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.6
Hits (L5)
+16.3% more
Detroit: 9.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.0
1
PIT Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.7
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.5
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 15.1
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.0
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+142 / -152
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
52%
82-77
54%
86-73
52%
85-78
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
86-73
64%
101-58
50%
81-82
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-9
50%
79-78-6
46%
69-81-10
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