CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
65-59 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
73-53 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Castillo
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 4-9 | 4.96 | 1.35 | 110.2 | 101 |
| Shota Imanaga | 8-9 | 3.74 | 1.10 | 137.1 | 130 |
4-9
W-L
8-9
4.96
ERA
Ldr 3.74
1.35
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
110.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 137.1
101
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 130
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
35%
CUBS
65%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (CHC)
WHITE SOX
42%
Book Odds: +140
CUBS
62%
Book Odds: -162
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 8.0
82%
Under 8.0
18%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
6.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.9
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
CHW @ CHC
5 - 7
May 17, 2026
CHC @ CHW
8 - 9
May 16, 2026
CHC @ CHW
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.826
▲
OPS
.374
1
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
Chicago: 8.2
vs
Chicago: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+45.2%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Total Bases (L5)
+32.1% more
Chicago: 19.3
vs
Chicago: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
5.1
5
CHC Score
6.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.0 / 10.2
14.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.0
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.4
6.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 19.3
25.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.5
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+140 / -162
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CHW
CHC
CHW
ML
58%
93-68
49%
81-86
51%
82-79
56%
94-73
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
99-68
47%
75-85-1
56%
93-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
58%
96-69-2
46%
72-83-6
51%
84-81-2
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