SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
67-59 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
57-69 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 7-5 | 4.88 | 1.43 | 114.1 | 100 |
| Nolan McLean | 8-8 | 3.42 | 1.13 | 136.2 | 159 |
7-5
W-L
8-8
4.88
ERA
Ldr 3.42
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
114.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 136.2
100
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 159
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
44%
METS
56%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (NYM)
PADRES
47%
Book Odds: +112
METS
55%
Book Odds: -120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 8.0
70%
Under 8.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.2%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5.4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.6
C
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
SD @ NYM
2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
SD @ NYM
5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026
SD @ NYM
1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
NYM @ SD
7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
NYM @ SD
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925
▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5000.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.8% more
New York: 9.6
vs
San Diego: 7.1
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
San Diego: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+36.9% more
San Diego: 2.2
vs
New York: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.8
1
NYM Score
5.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.2
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 15.5
5.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.8
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+112 / -120
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50%
79-80
51%
85-83
48%
76-83
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
91-77
49%
78-81
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
82-80-6
51%
74-72-13
54%
86-74-6
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