DETROIT
TIGERSDET
61-64 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
61-66 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 7-8 | 4.26 | 1.39 | 133.0 | 106 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 6-5 | 3.79 | 1.40 | 99.2 | 78 |
7-8
W-L
6-5
4.26
ERA
Ldr 3.79
1.39 Ldr
WHIP
1.40
133.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
99.2
106 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
78
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
65%
PIRATES
35%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (DET)
TIGERS
54%
Book Odds: -118
PIRATES
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 8.0
62%
Under 8.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
181
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Detroit: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+8.4% more
Detroit: 3.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.2
Hits (L5)
+21.7% more
Pittsburgh: 9.1
vs
Detroit: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.6
8
PIT Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.5
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.7
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 13.6
8.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
-118 / +100
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
52%
82-77
54%
86-73
52%
85-78
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
86-73
64%
101-58
50%
81-82
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-9
50%
79-78-6
46%
69-81-10
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