MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
64-62 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
68-58 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | 6-7 | 4.41 | 1.32 | 87.2 | 64 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 15-4 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 155.2 | 181 |
6-7
W-L
15-4
4.41
ERA
Ldr 2.54
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
87.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.2
64
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 181
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
36%
PHILLIES
64%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (MIA)
MARLINS
33%
Book Odds: +201
PHILLIES
71%
Book Odds: -249
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
53%
Under 8.0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.9%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+16.5% more
Philadelphia: 16.2
vs
Miami: 13.9
Hits (L5)
+15.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.7
vs
Miami: 8.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.6% more
Philadelphia: 8.5
vs
Miami: 7.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.6
5
PHI Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.4
11.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 13.9
12.0 / 19.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.8
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +176 / -216
→
+201 / -249
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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