BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
61-64 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
75-49 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane McClanahan
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | 9-3 | 3.33 | 1.32 | 113.2 | 93 |
| Shane McClanahan | 9-6 | 3.09 | 1.12 | 99.0 | 91 |
9-3
W-L
9-6
3.33
ERA
Ldr 3.09
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
113.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
99.0
93 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
91
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
62%
RAYS
38%
▲ Edge: +21.70% (BAL)
ORIOLES
40%
Book Odds: +150
RAYS
62%
Book Odds: -161
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
53%
Under 7.5
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.0%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
3.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.728
199
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.6% more
Baltimore: 1.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+29.3% more
Baltimore: 4.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.0% more
Baltimore: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.2
Home Runs (Season)
+15.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
6
TB Score
3.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.4 / 9.3
12.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.6
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 16.0
22.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.3
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+150 / -161
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
58%
95-68
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
97-66
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-73
57%
90-68-1
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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