ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
64-61 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
59-65 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 12-6 | 3.46 | 1.22 | 130.0 | 92 |
| Rhett Lowder | 4-8 | 5.15 | 1.48 | 94.1 | 77 |
12-6
W-L
4-8
3.46 Ldr
ERA
5.15
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
130.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
94.1
92 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
77
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
50%
REDS
50%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (CIN)
CARDINALS
54%
Book Odds: -116
REDS
49%
Book Odds: +105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 9.0
41%
Under 9.0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+95.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.0% more
Cincinnati: 9.9
vs
St. Louis: 7.2
Home Runs (Season)
+27.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.9
2
CIN Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 8.8
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 7.2
9.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 16.9
7.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -109 / +101
→
-116 / +105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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