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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

61-64  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-75  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cody Bradford
STARTING PITCHER

Cody Bradford

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cody Bradford 0-1 2.38 1.15 11.1 6
Jacob Lopez 5-4 5.38 1.56 82.0 75
0-1 W-L 5-4
2.38 Ldr ERA 5.38
1.15 Ldr WHIP 1.56
11.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 82.0
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 75
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
70%
📊
ATHLETICS
30%
▲ Edge: +11.50% (TEX)
RANGERS 58% Book Odds: -139
ATHLETICS 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 58.20% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.8 (Under)
Over 10.5 44%
Under 10.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Texas Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

71.7%

Athletics Cover

28.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.9%

ATH By 1-2 runs

12.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

7.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 6
3.2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 6
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Rangers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim o10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .719
183
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +11.8% more
Texas: 8.3 vs Athletics: 7.3
Home Runs (L5) +54.0% more
Athletics: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.8
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Athletics: 0.9 vs Texas: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +33.8% more
Athletics: 15.0 vs Texas: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.5 2
ATH Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.3 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.8 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.3 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 11.2 23.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -139 / +118 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5 → 10.5
62%TICKETS38%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 92-70
50% 81-80
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 78-70-14
42% 66-90-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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