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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

50-74  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

51-73  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Gabriel Hughes
STARTING PITCHER

Gabriel Hughes

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Blade Tidwell
STARTING PITCHER

Blade Tidwell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gabriel Hughes 0-4 5.61 1.28 33.2 31
Blade Tidwell 0-0 2.78 1.10 22.2 19
0-4 W-L 0-0
5.61 ERA Ldr 2.78
1.28 WHIP Ldr 1.10
33.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 22.2
31 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 19
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
26%
📊
GIANTS
74%
▲ Edge: +18.40% (SF)
ROCKIES 46% Book Odds: +118
GIANTS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 45.90% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 66%
Under 8.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 GiantsSF (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

23.4%

Giants Cover

76.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

10.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
6.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
B
Sim Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
San Francisco: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.4
Hits (L5) +19.3% more
San Francisco: 7.7 vs Colorado: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +9.2% more
San Francisco: 11.9 vs Colorado: 10.9
Strikeouts (L5) +38.9% more
Colorado: 8.8 vs San Francisco: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.3 13
SF Score 6.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 6.4 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 8.8 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 10.9 16.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.1 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +111 / -134 → +118 / -126 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
20%TICKETS80%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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