ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
63-61 | Road
11
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
72-53 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Dobbins
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Edward Cabrera
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 2-3 | 3.40 | 1.31 | 45.0 | 42 |
| Edward Cabrera | 5-4 | 5.10 | 1.40 | 72.1 | 65 |
2-3
W-L
5-4
3.40 Ldr
ERA
5.10
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.40
45.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 72.1
42
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 65
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
38%
CUBS
62%
CARDINALS
39%
Book Odds: +158
CUBS
63%
Book Odds: -170
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 9.0
67%
Under 9.0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
6.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691
▲
OPS
.374
167
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+13.6% more
Chicago: 7.5
vs
St. Louis: 6.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.0% more
Chicago: 6.9
vs
St. Louis: 6.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.7
11
CHC Score
6.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.6
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 6.4
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.3
13.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.1
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
+158 / -170
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
85-74
51%
82-79
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-70
47%
75-85-1
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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