PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
67-58 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
60-65 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dean Kremer
#13 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 2-8 | 6.27 | 1.53 | 80.1 | 69 |
| Dean Kremer | 2-4 | 5.25 | 1.17 | 48.0 | 47 |
2-8
W-L
2-4
6.27
ERA
Ldr 5.25
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
80.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
48.0
69 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
47
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
57%
TWINS
43%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (PHI)
PHILLIES
53%
Book Odds: -111
TWINS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 9.5
53%
Under 9.5
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.8%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.8%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Minnesota
4.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
PHI @ MIN
9 - 1
Aug 13, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 1
Sep 28, 2025
MIN @ PHI
1 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
MIN @ PHI
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+26.1% more
Philadelphia: 4.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.2
vs
Minnesota: 0.0
Total Bases (L5)
+10.8% more
Philadelphia: 15.8
vs
Minnesota: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.3
7
MIN Score
4.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 10.1
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 9.2
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 15.8
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.8
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105
→
-111 / -105
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHI
MIN
PHI
ML
52%
84-78
59%
97-67
50%
80-81
49%
80-84
ATS
59%
95-67
65%
107-57
59%
95-66
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
57%
88-67-9
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-76-9
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