Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Guardians SD @ CLE

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

67-58  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

60-65  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tanner Bibee
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Bibee

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Mize 4-7 3.38 1.09 96.0 92
Tanner Bibee 4-12 3.99 1.13 144.1 114
4-7 W-L 4-12
3.38 Ldr ERA 3.99
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.13
96.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 144.1
92 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 114
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
73%
📊
GUARDIANS
27%
▲ Edge: +20.40% (SD)
PADRES 53% Book Odds: -112
GUARDIANS 51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.5 57%
Under 8.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

74.2%

Guardians Cover

25.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.3%

CLE By 1-2 runs

11.8%

CLE By 3-4 runs

6.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Guardians Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
B
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 SD @ CLE 5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 SD @ CLE 1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026 SD @ CLE 7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025 CLE @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025 CLE @ SD 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Cleveland CLE
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.925 ▲
OPS
.696
4
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +72.9% more
San Diego: 1.4 vs Cleveland: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +36.5% more
San Diego: 1.3 vs Cleveland: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +30.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season) +22.9%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.6 5
CLE Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 7.2 3.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.6 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 12.3 4.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -106 → -112 / -104
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
68%TICKETS32%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SD
CLE
SD
ML
54% 87-74
51% 85-83
49% 80-82
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 91-77
59% 95-67
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 88-71-2
51% 82-80-6
43% 69-90-2
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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