MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
64-61 | Road
7
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
59-64 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 6-9 | 3.39 | 1.11 | 116.2 | 128 |
| Nick Lodolo | 3-2 | 4.86 | 1.46 | 66.2 | 55 |
6-9
W-L
3-2
3.39 Ldr
ERA
4.86
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
116.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
66.2
128 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
55
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
54%
REDS
46%
MARLINS
54%
Book Odds: -118
REDS
48%
Book Odds: +110
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727
▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+57.2% more
Miami: 3.7
vs
Cincinnati: 1.6
Hits (L5)
+23.7% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Cincinnati: 6.6
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+10.9% more
Miami: 13.4
vs
Cincinnati: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.3
7
CIN Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.6
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 7.2
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 13.4
7.0 / 15.0
Walks
1.6 / 3.7
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
-118 / +110
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55%
88-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
88-69-5
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-73-5
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