Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Athletics TEX @ ATH

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

61-63  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

48-75  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
MacKenzie Gore
STARTING PITCHER

MacKenzie Gore

#1 | Starting Pitcher
@
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
MacKenzie Gore 6-9 4.43 1.24 134.0 149
J.T. Ginn 8-6 3.41 1.21 121.1 107
6-9 W-L 8-6
4.43 ERA Ldr 3.41
1.24 WHIP Ldr 1.21
134.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 121.1
149 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 107
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
59%
📊
ATHLETICS
41%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (TEX)
RANGERS 58% Book Odds: -139
ATHLETICS 47% Book Odds: +115
Book Implied: 58.20% / 46.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 9.5 44%
Under 9.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

39.2%

Athletics Cover

60.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5.50
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5.50
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.1
C
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .719
183
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +21.1% more
Texas: 4.5 vs Athletics: 3.6
Total Bases (L5) +86.4% more
Athletics: 15.5 vs Texas: 8.3
Home Runs (L5) +82.0% more
Athletics: 1.5 vs Texas: 0.7
Errors (L5) +73.0% more
Athletics: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.9 5
ATH Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 5.5 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.4 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 8.3 14.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109 → -139 / +115 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 92-70
50% 81-80
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 78-70-14
42% 66-90-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 3 minutes ago
Cloud Production Secrets: NBC Sports, MLB, NHL, and Warner Bros.…
sportsvideo 8 hours, 9 minutes ago
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 8 hours, 12 minutes ago
Yankees' Season on the Brink: Max Fried Takes Mound for Game 3 D…
yardbarker 1 day, 8 hours ago
Sam McDowell, Flamethrowing All-Star and Inspiration for Cheers'…
hollywoodreporter 1 day, 20 hours ago