KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
50-74 | Road
0
LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
49-75 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Dobnak
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reid Detmers
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Dobnak | 2-1 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 36.0 | 19 |
| Reid Detmers | 3-8 | 4.00 | 1.10 | 135.0 | 156 |
2-1
W-L
3-8
2.00 Ldr
ERA
4.00
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
36.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 135.0
19
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 156
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
56%
ANGELS
44%
▲ Edge: +12.30% (KC)
ROYALS
44%
Book Odds: +130
ANGELS
61%
Book Odds: -156
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.6 (Under)
Over 8.0
37%
Under 8.0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
15.3%
LAA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
LAA By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
2.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
KC @ LAA
3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026
KC @ LAA
0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026
KC @ LAA
7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
LAA @ KC
9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026
LAA @ KC
1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Los Angeles
LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718
▲
OPS
.679
170
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+52.8% more
Kansas City: 1.1
vs
Los Angeles: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+40.6% more
Kansas City: 3.5
vs
Los Angeles: 2.1
Home Runs (Season)
+9.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.2% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.5
0
LAA Score
2.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.6
6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.8
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 12.1
7.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.5
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+130 / -156
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
KC
LAA
KC
ML
59%
96-66
55%
89-72
55%
89-73
56%
90-70
ATS
60%
97-65
57%
91-70
51%
82-80
58%
93-67
TTL
53%
83-74-5
58%
90-64-7
52%
82-75-5
54%
83-70-7
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