Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Pirates BOS @ PIT

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

66-57  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:15 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

60-65  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jared Jones
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Jones

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sonny Gray 14-3 2.79 1.15 125.2 110
Jared Jones 2-4 5.03 1.20 59.0 65
14-3 W-L 2-4
2.79 Ldr ERA 5.03
1.15 Ldr WHIP 1.20
125.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 59.0
110 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 65
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
53%
📊
PIRATES
47%
RED SOX 55% Book Odds: -124
PIRATES 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 55.40% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
Over 7.5 48%
Under 7.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

47.0%

Pirates Cover

53.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.4%

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 BOS @ PIT 3 - 8
Aug 15, 2026 BOS @ PIT 4 - 0
Aug 14, 2026 BOS @ PIT 4 - 8
Aug 31, 2025 PIT @ BOS 2 - 5
Aug 30, 2025 PIT @ BOS 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.409
OPS
▲ .734
2
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +53.0% more
Boston: 4.4 vs Pittsburgh: 2.1
Home Runs (Season) +9200.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +373.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +106.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.7 vs Boston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.9 4
PIT Score 3.6 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.8 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.6 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 12.1 6.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -124 / +105
76%TICKETS24%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
45%TICKETS55%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BOS
PIT
BOS
ML
52% 82-77
50% 80-80
52% 85-78
47% 76-87
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-67
50% 81-82
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 72-83-5
50% 79-78-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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