Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Astros SEA @ HOU

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

58-66  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

63-61  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Emerson Hancock
STARTING PITCHER

Emerson Hancock

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hayden Wesneski
STARTING PITCHER

Hayden Wesneski

#39 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emerson Hancock 6-7 3.35 1.12 121.0 111
Hayden Wesneski 2-0 3.86 1.18 18.2 12
6-7 W-L 2-0
3.35 Ldr ERA 3.86
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.18
121.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 18.2
111 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 12
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
52%
📊
ASTROS
48%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (SEA)
MARINERS 48% Book Odds: +110
ASTROS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 47.60% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5 53%
Under 8.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

52.0%

Astros Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

14.1%

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
4.3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 HOU @ SEA 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026 HOU @ SEA 7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026 SEA @ HOU 3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026 SEA @ HOU 10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026 SEA @ HOU 7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693 ▲
OPS
.582
182 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +26.8% more
Seattle: 4.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5) +12.0% more
Seattle: 3.5 vs Houston: 3.1
OPS (Season) +11.1%
Seattle: 69.3% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.5 10
HOU Score 4.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.0 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.2 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 13.2 17.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131 → +110 / -118 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
32%TICKETS68%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
33%TICKETS67%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50% 81-82
50% 81-81
47% 77-87
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 98-64
55% 90-74
59% 95-67
TTL
45% 70-84-9
56% 85-67-10
45% 69-86-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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