PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
66-58 | Road
9
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
60-64 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 10-5 | 3.32 | 1.14 | 143.2 | 176 |
| Connor Prielipp | 3-5 | 4.79 | 1.32 | 82.2 | 88 |
10-5
W-L
3-5
3.32 Ldr
ERA
4.79
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
143.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
82.2
176 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
88
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
64%
TWINS
36%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (PHI)
PHILLIES
59%
Book Odds: -143
TWINS
44%
Book Odds: +125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.0
57%
Under 8.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.7%
MIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
3.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
PHI @ MIN
9 - 1
Aug 13, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 1
Sep 28, 2025
MIN @ PHI
1 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
MIN @ PHI
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+38.1% more
Philadelphia: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+20.8% more
Philadelphia: 4.2
vs
Minnesota: 3.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.8
vs
Minnesota: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.1
9
MIN Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.7
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.8
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 14.2
14.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.2
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +128
→
-143 / +125
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHI
MIN
PHI
ML
52%
84-78
59%
97-67
50%
80-81
49%
80-84
ATS
59%
95-67
65%
107-57
59%
95-66
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
57%
88-67-9
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-76-9
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