SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
66-58 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
60-64 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | 2-2 | 3.39 | 1.38 | 61.0 | 38 |
| Joey Cantillo | 8-7 | 3.91 | 1.48 | 119.2 | 132 |
2-2
W-L
8-7
3.39 Ldr
ERA
3.91
1.38 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
61.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 119.2
38
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 132
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
76%
GUARDIANS
24%
▲ Edge: +26.20% (SD)
PADRES
50%
Book Odds: -101
GUARDIANS
52%
Book Odds: -106
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
10.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Cleveland
2.9
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
SD @ CLE
5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026
SD @ CLE
1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026
SD @ CLE
7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
CLE @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025
CLE @ SD
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.925
▲
OPS
.696
4
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+50.4% more
San Diego: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
San Diego: 1.9
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Total Bases (L5)
+24.2% more
San Diego: 17.9
vs
Cleveland: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.9
1
CLE Score
2.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.2 / 10.3
11.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 6.9
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 17.9
16.0 / 1.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / +100
→
-101 / -106
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SD
CLE
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
49%
80-82
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
82-80-6
43%
69-90-2
54%
86-74-6
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