Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Reds MIA @ CIN

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

63-61  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

59-63  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Gusto 0-3 4.78 1.33 49.0 43
Brady Singer 5-11 4.66 1.43 119.2 100
0-3 W-L 5-11
4.78 ERA Ldr 4.66
1.33 Ldr WHIP 1.43
49.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 119.2
43 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
42%
📊
REDS
58%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (CIN)
MARLINS 51% Book Odds: -102
REDS 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 50.50% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 50%
Under 9.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Cincinnati)
MarlinsMIA (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

42.1%

Reds Cover

57.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.20
4.9
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.20
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 MIA @ CIN 7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026 MIA @ CIN 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 MIA @ CIN 0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026 CIN @ MIA 1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026 CIN @ MIA 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727 ▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +43.5% more
Cincinnati: 9.7 vs Miami: 6.7
Home Runs (Season) +26.8% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5) +25.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs Miami: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +9.1% more
Cincinnati: 9.9 vs Miami: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.1 8
CIN Score 4.9 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 5.9 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 6.7 13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 9.1 16.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → -102 / -105 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
43%TICKETS57%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
42%TICKETS58%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55% 88-71
48% 78-84
49% 79-81
55% 88-72
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 91-71
50% 80-80
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 81-73-5
56% 88-69-5
54% 83-72-5
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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