Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

68-55  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

61-64  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cam Schlittler 10-6 2.21 0.93 146.2 182
Braydon Fisher 3-3 3.54 1.23 61.0 57
10-6 W-L 3-3
2.21 Ldr ERA 3.54
0.93 Ldr WHIP 1.23
146.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 61.0
182 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 57
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
63%
📊
BLUE JAYS
37%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (TOR)
YANKEES 65% Book Odds: -186
BLUE JAYS 37% Book Odds: +173
Book Implied: 65% / 36.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 7.0 54%
Under 7.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

35.4%

Blue Jays Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
3.1
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Yankees Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs Toronto: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +55.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +38.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 5.6
Home Runs (L5) +35.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs Toronto: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.6 1
TOR Score 3.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.4 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 9.0 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 11.2 11.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.9 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -171 / -171 → -186 / +173 ↓
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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