ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
62-61 | Road
8
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
72-52 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 4-9 | 3.64 | 1.22 | 126.0 | 85 |
| Matthew Boyd | 8-1 | 3.50 | 1.22 | 79.2 | 66 |
4-9
W-L
8-1
3.64
ERA
Ldr 3.50
1.22
WHIP
1.22
126.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
79.2
85 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
66
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
32%
CUBS
68%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (CHC)
CARDINALS
40%
Book Odds: +150
CUBS
63%
Book Odds: -173
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 9.0
59%
Under 9.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691
▲
OPS
.374
167
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+119.0% more
Chicago: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+48.4% more
Chicago: 13.3
vs
St. Louis: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+13.4% more
Chicago: 7.3
vs
St. Louis: 6.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.9
8
CHC Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 6.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.5
6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 8.9
13.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.1
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +147 / -178
→
+150 / -173
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
85-74
51%
82-79
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-70
47%
75-85-1
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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