CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
64-58 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
60-63 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 9-5 | 3.96 | 1.34 | 116.0 | 94 |
| Troy Melton | 7-1 | 1.46 | 0.90 | 80.0 | 69 |
9-5
W-L
7-1
3.96
ERA
Ldr 1.46
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 0.90
116.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
80.0
94 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
69
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
36%
TIGERS
64%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (DET)
WHITE SOX
46%
Book Odds: +118
TIGERS
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
74%
Under 7.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.2%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Detroit
5.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 8
Sep 19, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
DET @ CHW
11 - 8
Sep 17, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
CHW @ DET
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Detroit
DET
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.826
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18000.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Detroit: 0.5
vs
Chicago: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Chicago: 2.2
vs
Detroit: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+37.4% more
Chicago: 3.6
vs
Detroit: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.3
4
DET Score
5.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 11.0
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.3
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 20.7
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -164
→
+118 / -135
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHW
DET
CHW
ML
54%
86-73
49%
81-86
54%
87-73
56%
94-73
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
99-68
57%
91-69
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
58%
96-69-2
46%
69-81-10
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
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