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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

49-73  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

50-72  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Landen Roupp
STARTING PITCHER

Landen Roupp

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland 3-10 6.63 1.50 112.2 96
Landen Roupp 7-11 4.22 1.29 123.2 123
3-10 W-L 7-11
6.63 ERA Ldr 4.22
1.50 WHIP Ldr 1.29
112.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 123.2
96 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 123
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
📊
GIANTS
73%
▲ Edge: +17.10% (SF)
ROCKIES 48% Book Odds: +109
GIANTS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 47.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 (Over)
Over 7.5 73%
Under 7.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 GiantsSF (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

26.6%

Giants Cover

73.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

12.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

6.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3
6.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +15.3% more
San Francisco: 3.9 vs Colorado: 3.4
Strikeouts (L5) +12.1% more
San Francisco: 7.3 vs Colorado: 6.5
Home Runs (L5) +48.5% more
Colorado: 1.3 vs San Francisco: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +33.9% more
Colorado: 14.0 vs San Francisco: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.7 5
SF Score 6.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.7 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 6.5 2.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 14.0 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.4 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131 → +109 / -126 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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