Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Athletics TEX @ ATH

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

60-63  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

48-74  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gage Jump
STARTING PITCHER

Gage Jump

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kumar Rocker 4-9 4.46 1.38 111.0 103
Gage Jump 5-7 4.46 1.46 72.2 84
4-9 W-L 5-7
4.46 ERA 4.46
1.38 Ldr WHIP 1.46
111.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 72.2
103 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 84
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
61%
📊
ATHLETICS
39%
▲ Edge: +9.10% (TEX)
RANGERS 52% Book Odds: -108
ATHLETICS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 51.90% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 9.5 42%
Under 9.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (+1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (-1.5)
Texas Rangers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

63.7%

Athletics Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4
3.6
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .719
183
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +51.2% more
Texas: 3.8 vs Athletics: 1.8
Strikeouts (L5) +16.8% more
Texas: 8.6 vs Athletics: 7.1
Home Runs (L5) +71.0% more
Athletics: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +62.1% more
Athletics: 13.7 vs Texas: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.0 3
ATH Score 3.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.3 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.6 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 8.5 19.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.8 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -114 → -108 / -108 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 92-70
50% 81-80
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 78-70-14
42% 66-90-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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