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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

50-73  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

48-75  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 5-7 4.41 1.37 134.2 104
Grayson Rodriguez 3-5 7.20 1.62 55.0 50
5-7 W-L 3-5
4.41 Ldr ERA 7.20
1.37 Ldr WHIP 1.62
134.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 55.0
104 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 50
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
51%
📊
ANGELS
49%
ROYALS 52% Book Odds: -109
ANGELS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.20% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Los Angeles)
RoyalsKC (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

49.0%

Angels Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.9%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
3.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718 ▲
OPS
.679
170 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Walks (L5) +29.7% more
Kansas City: 3.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +9.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +5.2% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 7
LAA Score 3.9 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.4 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.3 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 9.7 16.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -109 / -108 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
49%TICKETS51%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
KC
LAA
KC
ML
59% 96-66
55% 89-72
55% 89-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 91-70
51% 82-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
58% 90-64-7
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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