Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

68-54  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

60-64  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shane Bieber
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Bieber

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gerrit Cole 6-5 3.35 1.08 80.2 87
Shane Bieber 3-2 5.48 1.66 42.2 32
6-5 W-L 3-2
3.35 Ldr ERA 5.48
1.08 Ldr WHIP 1.66
80.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 42.2
87 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 32
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
59%
📊
BLUE JAYS
42%
YANKEES 61% Book Odds: -154
BLUE JAYS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 60.60% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.0 52%
Under 8.0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

42.1%

Blue Jays Cover

57.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

15.8%

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.8%

TOR By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
3.7
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +55.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +53.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +38.2% more
New York: 9.5 vs Toronto: 5.8
OPS (Season) +34.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.5 1
TOR Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.1 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 9.5 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 12.3 13.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -157 / +130 → -154 / +130
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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