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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

59-63  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

74-47  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Steven Matz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Matz

#32 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Bradish 7-11 3.69 1.34 127.0 121
Steven Matz 5-4 5.46 1.23 62.2 48
7-11 W-L 5-4
3.69 Ldr ERA 5.46
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.23
127.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 62.2
121 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 48
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
61%
📊
RAYS
39%
▲ Edge: +18.90% (BAL)
ORIOLES 42% Book Odds: +140
RAYS 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 41.70% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.0 53%
Under 8.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

62.7%

Rays Cover

37.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

15.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TB @ BAL 3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026 TB @ BAL 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TB @ BAL 3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026 BAL @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 BAL @ TB 10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.711
OPS
▲ .728
199 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.9% more
Baltimore: 3.6 vs Tampa Bay: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5) +23.5% more
Baltimore: 8.3 vs Tampa Bay: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +15.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Hits (L5) +43.7% more
Tampa Bay: 12.1 vs Baltimore: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.8 6
TB Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.1 / 8.4 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 8.3 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 20.8 / 15.6 10.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.6 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168 → +140 / -166
24%TICKETS76%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
27%TICKETS73%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
58% 95-68
53% 83-73
58% 95-68
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-66
61% 95-60-1
55% 90-73
57% 90-68-1
TTL
47% 73-81-9
54% 81-70-5
51% 78-75-10
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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