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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

63-58  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

60-62  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sean Newcomb
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Newcomb

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jackson Jobe
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Jobe

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Newcomb 1-3 2.66 1.13 64.1 60
Jackson Jobe 1-0 0.00 0.40 5.0 4
1-3 W-L 1-0
2.66 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.13 WHIP Ldr 0.40
64.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
60 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
42%
📊
TIGERS
58%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (DET)
WHITE SOX 57% Book Odds: -134
TIGERS 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 57.30% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.5 60%
Under 8.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

59.9%

Tigers Cover

40.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 8
Sep 19, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Sep 18, 2026 DET @ CHW 11 - 8
Sep 17, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 CHW @ DET 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Detroit DET
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.826 ▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18000.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Detroit: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +42.4% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Detroit: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +31.1% more
Chicago: 16.0 vs Detroit: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 4.3 9
DET Score 5.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 9.5 10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.5 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 16.0 20.0 / 30.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157 → -134 / +124 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
32%TICKETS68%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
53%TICKETS47%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHW
DET
CHW
ML
54% 86-73
49% 81-86
54% 87-73
56% 94-73
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 99-68
57% 91-69
56% 93-74
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 96-69-2
46% 69-81-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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