Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Pirates BOS @ PIT

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

65-57  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

60-64  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jake Bennett
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Bennett

#64 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bubba Chandler
STARTING PITCHER

Bubba Chandler

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Bennett 7-5 3.17 1.04 76.2 55
Bubba Chandler 5-8 4.26 1.38 116.1 103
7-5 W-L 5-8
3.17 Ldr ERA 4.26
1.04 Ldr WHIP 1.38
76.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 116.1
55 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 103
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
PIRATES
50%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (BOS)
RED SOX 49% Book Odds: +103
PIRATES 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 49.30% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 8.0 43%
Under 8.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

49.0%

Pirates Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.9%

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.1
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 BOS @ PIT 3 - 8
Aug 15, 2026 BOS @ PIT 4 - 0
Aug 14, 2026 BOS @ PIT 4 - 8
Aug 31, 2025 PIT @ BOS 2 - 5
Aug 30, 2025 PIT @ BOS 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.409
OPS
▲ .734
2
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +43.7% more
Boston: 4.7 vs Pittsburgh: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +9200.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +373.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +59.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.6 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.6 4
PIT Score 3.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.5 / 8.7 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 6.3 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 13.2 18.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → +103 / -110 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BOS
PIT
BOS
ML
52% 82-77
50% 80-80
52% 85-78
47% 76-87
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-67
50% 81-82
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 72-83-5
50% 79-78-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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