MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
62-61 | Road
0
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
59-62 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-6 | 3.52 | 1.17 | 163.2 | 128 |
| Chase Burns | 13-2 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 124.0 | 143 |
13-6
W-L
13-2
3.52
ERA
Ldr 2.61
1.17
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
163.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
124.0
128
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
32%
REDS
68%
▲ Edge: +14.10% (CIN)
MARLINS
50%
Book Odds: +100
REDS
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.1%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Cincinnati
5.1
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727
▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+31.9% more
Cincinnati: 1.5
vs
Miami: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+26.8% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+15.9% more
Miami: 6.9
vs
Cincinnati: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.2
0
CIN Score
5.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 6.9
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.6
11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 11.6
8.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.4
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -114
→
+100 / -115
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55%
88-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
88-69-5
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-73-5
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