ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
61-61 | Road
0
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
72-51 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 5-9 | 5.15 | 1.52 | 113.2 | 110 |
| Clay Holmes | 4-5 | 2.86 | 1.16 | 56.2 | 46 |
5-9
W-L
4-5
5.15
ERA
Ldr 2.86
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
113.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
56.2
110 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
46
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
16%
CUBS
84%
▲ Edge: +19.90% (CHC)
CARDINALS
39%
Book Odds: +155
CUBS
65%
Book Odds: -182
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 8.0
72%
Under 8.0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
STL By 1-2 runs
7.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
3.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
2.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
7.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.3
A
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691
▲
OPS
.374
167
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+128.0% more
Chicago: 1.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+25.1% more
Chicago: 14.9
vs
St. Louis: 11.9
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Chicago: 0.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
2.9
0
CHC Score
7.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.2
6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.3
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.9
10.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -183
→
+155 / -182
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
85-74
51%
82-79
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-70
47%
75-85-1
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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