Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

0-1-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Thu, Aug 27 • 2:30 PM ET
Balaidos

OSASUNAOSASUNA

2-1-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
CELTA VIGO
61%
DRAW
21%
OSASUNA
18%
▲ Edge: +31.10% (Osasuna)
55% Book Odds: -120
DRAW --
21% Book Odds: +380
Book Implied: 54.50% / % / 20.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CELTA VIGO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Celta Vigo)
Celta VigoCelta Vigo (-0.5) 0 OsasunaOsasuna (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

51.5% / 48.5%

Shots (On Goal)

4(2) / 13(5)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Celta Vigo -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Celta Vigo)

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

26.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

36.9%

Osasuna By 1 goal

11.1%

Osasuna By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
0
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celta Vigo Loss
48% Win Prob
A
Sim Celta Vigo Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celta Vigo (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Celta Vigo (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.3 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Osasuna 1 - 2
Feb 6, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Osasuna 1 - 2
Oct 26, 2025 Osasuna vs Celta Vigo 2 - 3
Feb 21, 2025 Celta Vigo vs Osasuna 1 - 0
Sep 1, 2024 Osasuna vs Celta Vigo 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Celta Vigo: 1.0 vs Osasuna: 4.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Celta Vigo: 3.0 vs Osasuna: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Celta Vigo: 5.0 vs Osasuna: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Celta Vigo: 1.0 vs Osasuna: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Osasuna Score 1.0 2
Celta Vigo Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Celta Vigo Share: 66.7% Osasuna Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
ATS
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.