Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Racing vs Villarreal Racing vs Villarreal

RACINGRACING

0-0  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 11:00 AM ET
El Sardineros

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
RACING
58%
DRAW
20%
VILLARREAL
23%
▲ Edge: +41.80% (Racing Santander)
28% Book Odds: +259
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +270
48% Book Odds: +109
Book Implied: 27.90% / 27% / 47.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.7
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 3.0 59%
Under 3.0 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.9
RACING
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 goals (Racing)
RacingRacing (+0.5) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

41.4% / 58.6%

Shots (On Goal)

17(3) / 12(7)

Corners

6 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

72.6%

Cover

27.4%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Racing Santander -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Racing Santander)

Racing Santander By 1 goal

26.1%

Racing Santander By 2+ goals

34.5%

Villarreal By 1 goal

12.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.3
RACING
Book Implied: 1.20
1.4
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
RACING
Book Implied: 1.20
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racing Santander Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Villarreal Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racing Santander (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
A
Sim Villarreal (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.7
C
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 Racing vs Villarreal 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Racing: 2.0 vs Villarreal: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Racing: 0.0 vs Villarreal: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Racing: 5.0 vs Villarreal: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Racing: 14.0 vs Villarreal: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 1.4 2
Racing Santander Score 2.3 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 57.7% Draw: 19.7% Away Win: 22.7%
Racing Santander (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 71.5% Under 2.5: 28.5%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.70
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Racing Santander Share: 62.2% Villarreal Share: 37.8%
AI Projected Score 2.3 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Racing Santander
Villarreal
Racing Santander
Villarreal
ML
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
ATS
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
38% 2-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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