Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Tijuana vs Cruz Azul

TIJUANATIJUANA

4-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
48%
DRAW
30%
CRUZ AZUL
22%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (Cruz Azul)
34% Book Odds: +198
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +241
41% Book Odds: +147
Book Implied: 33.60% / 29.30% / 40.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
1.9
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 2.5 23%
Under 2.5 77%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.5
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Tijuana)
TijuanaTijuana (+0.2) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.3% / 57.7%

Shots (On Goal)

13(3) / 14(5)

Corners

5 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

63.1%

Cover

36.9%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Tijuana By 1 goal

24.8%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

25.2%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

16.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.10
0.7
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
0
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tijuana Win
51% Win Prob
B
Sim Cruz Azul Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tijuana (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
B
Sim Cruz Azul (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.9
B
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 Tijuana vs Cruz Azul 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Tijuana 1 - 1
Feb 21, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Tijuana 2 - 1
Nov 30, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Tijuana 3 - 2
Nov 27, 2025 Tijuana vs Cruz Azul 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +500.0% more
Cruz Azul: 6.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Cruz Azul: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 0.7 1
Tijuana Score 1.2 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 48.0% Draw: 30.4% Away Win: 21.6%
Tijuana (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 29.6% Under 2.5: 70.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 1.90
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 63.2% Cruz Azul Share: 36.8%
AI Projected Score 1.2 - 0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Cruz Azul
Tijuana
Cruz Azul
ML
22% 2-7
60% 6-4
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
ATS
75% 6-2-1
44% 4-5-1
50% 4-4-1
44% 4-5-1
TTL
67% 6-3
44% 4-5-1
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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