Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Santos vs Guadalajara Santos vs Guadalajara

SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 9:10 PM ET
Estadio Corona

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

5-3-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
59%
DRAW
23%
GUADALAJARA
19%
▲ Edge: +52.80% (Santos)
18% Book Odds: +465
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +363
64% Book Odds: -181
Book Implied: 17.70% / 21.60% / 64.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.7
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.0 64%
Under 3.0 36%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.9
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (+1) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.5% / 61.5%

Shots (On Goal)

11(2) / 12(5)

Corners

5 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

72.6%

Cover

27.4%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

34.5%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

12.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
1.8
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1
0.9
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Santos Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Sim Guadalajara Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (+1) Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
B
Sim Santos (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.7
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 Santos vs Guadalajara 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Santos: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0 vs Santos: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Santos: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Santos: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 0.9 1
Santos Score 1.8 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 58.6% Draw: 22.9% Away Win: 18.5%
Santos (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 50.6% Under 2.5: 49.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.70
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 66.7% Guadalajara Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 1.8 - 0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Guadalajara
Santos
Guadalajara
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
ATS
44% 4-5-1
86% 6-1-3
67% 6-3-1
57% 4-3-3
TTL
68% 6-3
83% 7-1-1
47% 4-5
56% 5-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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