Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / América vs Atl. San Luis América vs Atl. San Luis

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
21%
DRAW
25%
ATL. SAN LUIS
54%
▲ Edge: +33.60% (Atlético de San Luis)
51% Book Odds: -103
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +264
25% Book Odds: +296
Book Implied: 50.70% / 27.50% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.5
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
Over 2.5 48%
Under 2.5 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.7
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Atl. San Luis)
AméricaAmérica (-0.5) 0 Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.5% / 46.5%

Shots (On Goal)

28(7) / 13(3)

Corners

10 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

32.0%

Cover

68.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético de San Luis -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético de San Luis)

América By 1 goal

14.1%

América By 2+ goals

7.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

25.6%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

29.7%

AI Model Projected Score
0.9
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.50
1.6
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Atlético de San Luis Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim América Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlético de San Luis (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
B
Sim América (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.5
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 América vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 0
Jan 14, 2026 América vs Atl. San Luis 0 - 2
Sep 24, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs América 0 - 1
Jan 28, 2025 América vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 0
Jul 6, 2024 Atl. San Luis vs América 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 3.0 vs América: 2.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
América: 3.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
América: 4.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 12.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
América: 0.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.6 0
América Score 0.9 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 21.2% Draw: 25.0% Away Win: 53.8%
América (Home) vs Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 45.6% Under 2.5: 54.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.50
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 36.0% Atlético de San Luis Share: 64.0%
AI Projected Score 0.9 - 1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Atlético de San Luis
América
Atlético de San Luis
ML
67% 6-3
30% 3-7
78% 7-2
50% 5-5
ATS
50% 4-4-1
56% 5-4-1
100% 7-0-2
62% 5-3-2
TTL
56% 5-4
32% 3-6
78% 7-2
68% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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