Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / UNAM vs Queretaro UNAM vs Queretaro

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 16 • 2:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
32%
DRAW
26%
QUERETARO
42%
▲ Edge: +14% (Querétaro)
51% Book Odds: -105
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
25% Book Odds: +307
Book Implied: 51.20% / 27.80% / 24.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.6
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 2.75 52%
Under 2.75 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.2
QUERETARO
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 goals (Queretaro)
UNAMUNAM (-0.5) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.7% / 34.3%

Shots (On Goal)

15(4) / 8(3)

Corners

6 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

44.7%

Cover

55.3%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Querétaro -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Querétaro)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

19.2%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

12.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

22.8%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
1.2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1.4
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Querétaro Loss
39% Win Prob
C
Sim Pumas UNAM Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Querétaro (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
C
Sim Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.6
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 UNAM vs Queretaro 0 - 0
Jan 11, 2026 UNAM vs Queretaro 1 - 1
Jul 25, 2025 Queretaro vs UNAM 0 - 2
Jan 19, 2025 Queretaro vs UNAM 3 - 2
Nov 5, 2024 UNAM vs Queretaro 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
UNAM: 8.0 vs Queretaro: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
UNAM: 8.0 vs Queretaro: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.4 0
Pumas UNAM Score 1.2 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 32.2% Draw: 26.2% Away Win: 41.6%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 48.2% Under 2.5: 51.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.60
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 46.2% Querétaro Share: 53.8%
AI Projected Score 1.2 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
Querétaro
Pumas UNAM
Querétaro
ML
50% 5-5
22% 2-7
22% 2-7
22% 2-7
ATS
47% 4-5
71% 5-2-2
12% 1-7
25% 2-6-1
TTL
68% 6-3
62% 5-3-1
65% 5-3
50% 4-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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