PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
65-58 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
60-63 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 3-9 | 5.47 | 1.45 | 125.0 | 129 |
| Taj Bradley | 9-4 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 131.2 | 148 |
3-9
W-L
9-4
5.47
ERA
Ldr 3.76
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
125.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 131.2
129
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 148
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
51%
TWINS
49%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (PHI)
PHILLIES
51%
Book Odds: -102
TWINS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
59%
Under 9.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
4.6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
PHI @ MIN
9 - 1
Aug 13, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 1
Sep 28, 2025
MIN @ PHI
1 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
MIN @ PHI
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+38.1% more
Philadelphia: 4.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Minnesota: 40.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.7
7
MIN Score
4.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 7.0
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.6
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 9.9
13.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-102 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHI
MIN
PHI
ML
52%
84-78
59%
97-67
50%
80-81
49%
80-84
ATS
59%
95-67
65%
107-57
59%
95-66
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
57%
88-67-9
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat