Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Nationals CHC @ WSH

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

71-51  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Aug 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-63  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Gausman
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Gausman

#12 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cade Cavalli
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Cavalli

#24 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Gausman 6-10 4.29 1.26 134.1 131
Cade Cavalli 9-5 3.57 1.30 128.2 141
6-10 W-L 9-5
4.29 ERA Ldr 3.57
1.26 Ldr WHIP 1.30
134.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 128.2
131 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 141
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
60%
📊
NATIONALS
40%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (CHC)
CUBS 59% Book Odds: -146
NATIONALS 42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 59.30% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 8.5 76%
Under 8.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

39.2%

Nationals Cover

60.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.2% more
Chicago: 2.7 vs Washington: 1.7
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Chicago: 0.7 vs Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +20.5% more
Chicago: 21.9 vs Washington: 17.4
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Chicago: 11.4 vs Washington: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.3 0
WSH Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 11.4 10.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 2.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.9 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 21.9 14.0 / 1.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -146 / +136 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
90%TICKETS10%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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