Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Blue Jays BOS @ TOR

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

65-56  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Aug 13 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

59-64  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Payton Tolle 7-6 3.20 1.10 107.0 124
Max Scherzer 1-4 7.25 1.53 36.0 27
7-6 W-L 1-4
3.20 Ldr ERA 7.25
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.53
107.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 36.0
124 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 27
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
67%
📊
BLUE JAYS
33%
▲ Edge: +9% (BOS)
RED SOX 58% Book Odds: -138
BLUE JAYS 44% Book Odds: +128
Book Implied: 58% / 43.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+1.5)
Boston Red Sox (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

68.3%

Blue Jays Cover

31.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

13.9%

TOR By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
3.6
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Blue Jays Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 BOS @ TOR 7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026 BOS @ TOR 4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 BOS @ TOR 3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026 BOS @ TOR 1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026 TOR @ BOS 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.409
OPS
▲ .692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +75.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Toronto: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +56.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Toronto: 0.4
Walks (L5) +13.9% more
Boston: 4.5 vs Toronto: 3.9
Home Runs (Season) +7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.5 7
TOR Score 3.6 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 8.0 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 6.5 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 12.8 2.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.5 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +134 → -138 / +128 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
81%TICKETS19%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46% 74-87
50% 80-80
50% 80-80
47% 76-87
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-67
49% 79-81
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 80-76-5
46% 72-83-5
45% 70-85-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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